Small Towns Drew Most Pandemic Residents
Bend, Oregon is located in the middle of nowhere. It’s two and a half hour drive from Eugene, over a mountain pass that can be dangerous even in springtime.
Lynn Connell, the city’s housing director, stated that “people were already coming to this area in large numbers, and then it just explode in the pandemic. More people would come if there was housing available to accommodate them.”
According to U.S. Census Bureau statistics, and Stateline analysis of postal change-of-address data, people who moved in the early stages of the pandemic in states across the country were attracted to open spaces in small towns.
Although the moves brought money to small towns, they also increased housing costs and altered the idyllic way of living that attracted people. In the last year, most moving patterns have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
It was easier for affluent workers to work remotely, especially in Bend and other places that aren’t easily commutable. People used to move for new jobs before the pandemic. But, since then, it has become more about comfort and lifestyle factors like good neighborhoods, home ownership, and climate.
Pete Slag, an assistant finance professor from Vanderbilt University, studied pandemic moves.
According to another study that Haslag co-authored and published by the Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business in February, these moves gave remote municipalities a boost in their bond ratings, allowing them to borrow money for infrastructure projects.
Slag stated that it is relatively cheaper for growing cities to undertake new projects. “The evidence suggests that areas with significant inflows during the pandemic should experience relatively greater economic growth.”
According to census estimates, major cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York lost population between 2020-2021. This was mainly due to people moving away.
Where did they go? According to the postal data, they traveled to places less well-known and more suitable for remote work due to their lower population.
From March 2020 to February 2021, the number of new residents in Daphne Alabama tripled to 1,543. This is a city of approximately 27,000 located across the bay from Mobile. Similar influxes occurred in Martinsburg, West Virginia, Kalispell, Montana, Elkhorn, Nebraska, and Lee’s Summit.
It was Bend, Oregon that saw net in-moves increase more than tripled to 1,214 during the first year of this pandemic. The area has lost 1,209 net movers in the last year, as housing prices have skyrocketed. Since then, the moves have stagnated. Connell stated that the city faces tax and labor shortage problems in order to build new homes.
She said, “The problem is that the people who swing the Hammers can’t afford to live here at the Wages construction companies can pay.”
State law also caps tax increases, which means that the city must raise fees when expenses rise. This is another reason why it’s more expensive to build in the city’s volcanic, rocky soil. Prices for homes on sale range from $500,000 up to millions.
“That may seem affordable to people who live in larger cities in California or Washington”. Connell stated that “it is not affordable for people who live in the area”.
However, the influx has been beneficial for city finances, according to Sherri Loda, the city’s chief financial officer.
Tax revenue has grown thanks to new development. Standard & Poor’s bond report for the city noted that it had an “affluent, rapidly growing economy” which attracted young professionals.
Long-term residents are experiencing tension due to newcomers, who face high homebuying costs and increased crowding along scenic desert and mountain trails. Some bumper stickers with “Don’t move here” have been seen to rival the “Be NiceYou’re in Bend!” slogan.
Elle Waterson runs workshops and retreats for writers and sold her Bend house before the pandemic of fall 2019. She thought she would rent it for a few months, then look for a smaller home to downsize. There are no dice in Bend’s pandemic housing marketplace.
Waterson said, “I ended up bidding for countless houses and entering into new construction contracts only to have the builder cancel because the cost of materials made it impossible.” she states, “I was able to finally buy a house in Bend because I saw a sign that said for-sale-by-owner”.
Peripheral cities in Sun Belt states also showed the greatest gains: Buckeye, a suburb of Maricopa County in Arizona, was the one that received the most pandemic moves. This is in contrast to Phoenix, which was more urban and the largest city in the nation in the decade 2010s.
Officials in Phoenix maintain that the city is growing rapidly. Officials from Phoenix claim that the city’s growth is still rapid. They also believe that the moving statistics could be affected by college students not filling out change-of-address forms upon their move-in. Also, ZIP codes may not accurately reflect the city’s boundaries.
Jay Toll, communication manager at the city’s Community and Economic Development Department stated that “I feel comfortable saying Phoenix will show significant growth.”
New York City officials see brighter times ahead.
Rebecca Weintraub, spokesperson for the Department of City Planning said that there is strong evidence that New York City has been growing in population.
According to Stateline analysis, Manhattan moves rose from 36,000 to over 100,000 in the year prior to March 2020 to less than 23,000 in the year following.
The most movers were 622 in the first pandemic year. This was more than 100 miles from Manhattan. The next year, from March 2021 to February 2022, Long Island City, Queens gained 960 residents.
The entire region was affected by moves out of New York, including Connecticut. In fact, suburban Fairfield saw the largest number of movers during the pandemic’s initial year 715, a more than threefold increase.
Terri Ann, a Connecticut-based census specialist, stated that she witnessed the effects in Stamford where in-moves tripled in the first year of the pandemic. Fairfield and Stamford both have easy access by commuter train to New York City.
Lowenthal stated that New Yorkers fleeing the city had overrun the neighborhood near the station. “A local developer was creating luxury rental buildings faster than you can spell Connecticut.”
Waterson stated that people in Bend now require a reservation to hike the famous South Sister volcano. The eastern desert known as Oregon’s Outback is becoming busier and filled with tourists. Waterways are also full of “thongs, Speedos, and inflatable unicorns floating around town.” She said signs from its past as a lumber mill town and livestock auction town are slowly disappearing.
Waterson stated, “Bend is difficult for me to recognize. I’m reacting in the same way as others who pack up and head for smaller towns only to start the same problem.”
